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極端降雨誘發的地鐵交通系統風險測繪研究:以上海地鐵線網為例

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文章標題:

Extreme rainfall induced risk mapping for metro transit systems: Shanghai metro network as a case

文章作者(*為通訊):

1. Dongming Zhang?1,3,*

2. Hao Bai?1,3

3. Canzheng Zheng?5

4. Hongwei Huang?1,3

5. Bilal M. Ayyub?2,3,4

6. Wenjun Cao?6

作者單位:

1.Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Minister of Education and Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongii University, Shanghai 200092, China

2.Center for Technology and Systems Management, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD,20742, USA

3.International Joint Research Center for Resilient Infrastructure, Tongji University, China

4.Applied Economics Office, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce, USA

5.Jinan Rail Transit Group Co., Ltd, Jinan, China

6.Department of Civil Engineering, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

關鍵詞:

Risk assessment; Metro flooding; Extreme rainfall; Multi-layer network; Resilience.

原文鏈接:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111234

02?/?文章摘要

近年來,氣候變遷引發的洪澇風險已對超大型城市地鐵網絡的安全可靠性構成重大威脅。高度網絡化的地鐵系統會加速風險傳播,且受網絡拓撲結構所定義的連通性影響,單節點事故的波及范圍將呈現非線性放大效應。本研究提出融合極端降雨模擬與網絡損失分析的風險評估框架:采用面折減系數(ARF)和水土保持局徑流曲線數(SCS-CN)模型模擬降雨致澇過程,結合區分車站與線路拓撲關系的多層網絡分析法。以上海地鐵為例,研究揭示其洪災風險服從指數分布規律——近50%的極端降雨事件僅造成低于5%的網絡損失,而不足5%的事件會導致超50%的網絡損失。當降雨中心位于站點密集、連接關系復雜的城市核心區,或當強降雨強度及空間分布不確定性增加時,地鐵網絡將面臨更高風險。

 

極端天氣1.jpg

 

圖1. 不同地鐵網絡模型對比

極端天氣2.jpg
圖2. 多層網絡建模流程圖

極端天氣3.jpg
圖3. 極端降雨下多層地鐵網絡風險評估框架

極端天氣4.jpg
圖4. 結合地鐵網絡的面折減系數曲線

極端天氣5.jpg
圖5. 網絡性能損失狀態(i) 網絡初始狀態 (ii) 網絡結構損失 (iii) 網絡流損失

極端天氣6.jpg
圖6. 極端降雨下地鐵網絡損失過程模型

04?/?原文信息

極端天氣7.png
Abstract

In recent years, a changing climate has induced flood risk as a great threat to the safety and reliability of the metro transit network in mega-cities. A highly networked metro system can lead to a quick spread of this risk, and furthermore, the impact range of single-node accidents of a network is nonlinearly amplified through network connectedness defined by its topology. This study proposes a risk assessment framework integrating extreme rainfall simulation and network loss analysis. The methodology employs the Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) to model rainfall-induced flooding, coupled with a multi-layer network-based approach that distinguishes topological interactions between stations and lines. Taking Shanghai metro as an example, this paper highlights its risk follows an exponential distribution to extreme rainfall events, characterized by the finding that nearly 50 % of extreme rainfall events result in <5 % network loss, whereas fewer than 5 % of the events lead to >50 % network loss. When rainfall centers are located in the urban center where metro stations are densely distributed and intricately connected, or when the rainfall intensity and the spatial distribution uncertainty increases, it will pose a greater risk to the metro network.

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